Monday, August 01, 2011

 

Chattanooga FTTH economics


I previously noted the rather high cost per premise of EPB's Chattanooga FTTH deployment. While this scheme is the poster child of the UK's "FTTH or bust" lobby it does look expensive in terms of cost of installation and the retail pricing would be a bit rich for our tastes too.

Obviously it's a sexy proposition to have a gigabit connection, even if only 12 residents take that service. One has to question the large debt involved in the current climate - a company with a turnover of $480m in 2008 taking on a fibre-optic bond debt of $220m doesn't look like something that would fly in the private sector. $220m divide by 169,000 residents is a debt of $1300 per head which if transferred to the UK population would be $78 billion or £47.8 billion which is 50% higher than the Analysys Mason estimate of under £30bn for point to point FTTH throughout the UK.

EPB's premise was of reducing the cost of operation of it's electric grid. The accounts show the following costs for 2008, 2009 and 2010 in $m :-

Other operation expenses :- 38.0, 38.9, 37.5
Maintenance :- 13.6, 15.6, 18.0

So it's early days but the tens of $millions of smart grid savings aren't showing up just yet.

The operating expenses and revenues of the fibre optic system are starting to take off :-

Fibre optic operating expenses :- 9.8, 11.0, 16.1
Fibre optics sales :- 15.5, 17.2, 20.9

It will be interesting to see the full picture as the system rolls out and full year accounts reflect a mature customer base. Adding $5.1m in operating expenses to gain $3.7m in revenues from 2009 to 2010 doesn't look great but the accounts of large companies don't provide a whole lot of detail.

In 2010 only 18% ($4m) of the fiber optic revenue was from residential services. When 30,000 customers paying $100 a month are fully reflected in the accounts we should see perhaps $36m of revenue making the total more like $58m with 62% from residential sales.

I look forward to the 2011 accounts, and would be happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood any of the above. It's a shame proponents of schemes like Chattanooga don't look beyond the willy waving gigabit speed into the detail in order to see if the thing is remotely affordable or sustainable.

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Sunday, July 17, 2011

 

Community Networks or Council Broadband ?


Recently I've been looking at US implementations of "community networks" after our local "fibre or bust" proponents were tweeting links to them.

Some of them didn't look like community networks, at least not by my personal understanding of the term. Perhaps we need a more granular taxonomy than defining everything that isn't owned by a large corporate as "community".

An article in the Huffington Post from an advocate of community networks puts forward a campaigning stance that "community networks" are at a disadvantage compared to the one or two large corporate providers present in a typical US locality (cable provider and DSL from incumbent telco). The network in question is a municipal network "Salisbury Fibrant"which offers triple play services over Fibre to the Home in Salisbury, North Carolina in competition with 7, 10 or 15M Time Warner Cable and 6M DSL from AT&T.

I call this a "municipal network" because it is financed, owned and operated as part of the local government, with some controversy as one would expect in the freedom loving and capitalist USA. In essence it's offering a 15M/15M symmetrical FTTH service at $45/month with $20/month increments to 25, 50, 75 or 100M so the 100M service is $125 per month taken on its own. There are a wide array of TV and phone bundles too. The DSL and Cable competition do look poor and appear to have dropped prices in response to Fibrant's arrival.

Those opposed to the Salisbury Fibrant project point to low takeup, high retail prices, mounting debts and increased taxes and local utility fees to pay for Fibrant. It's hard to judge the truth of the matter from this distance, but time will tell.

In nearby Wilson, NC the Greenlight municipal FTTH network has disconnected 1,000 customers who never paid a bill - an alarming figure relative to their 5,000 or so subscribers.
In the State of Vermont the city owned Burlington Telecom got into financial problems when the takeup rate for its fiber system didn't meet requirements and losses mounted. So all is not well in the world of council broadband.

In case anyone runs away with the idea that things would be different in the UK, take a look at Swindon's controversial municipal Wi-Fi project "Get Signal" provided by Digital City.

I'm sure there are proper community projects in the USA that are not council broadband, and look forward to reading about them. All links and hints gratefully received.

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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

 

Digging further into "Propel Northants"


Trying to untangle the loss making assumptions behind the DCF analysis of the "Propel Northants" project I have observed the following questionable assumptions :-

  1. Take-up aspiration is very low - "a total connection rate of 30% of the total private sector premises passed in year 2026"
  2. Rate of take-up growth is abysmal - "2% of all existing Private Sector premises (B Type and non B type) passed are connected each year"
  3. A wholesale only "Open Access" model is used, with a modest proportion of revenue captured as a result - "it is assumed that the wholesale network operator takes 50% of the total retail revenues achievable"
  4. Retail pricing model is unambitious, matching first generation broadband pricing with a SOHO office internet / telephony bundle at £35 per month
  5. Large parts of potential market are excluded - "Other Public Sector premises (i.e. Education and Health) do not connect to the network and procure their telecom services via an alternative route"
The network is a substantial investment and isn't going to be achieved by community activists digging trenches - 110 km in 10 distribution rings are proposed, connecting to 224km of core fibre ring with 8 points of presence.

Capital costing is in line with corporate civil engineering costs, as one would expect from a report prepared by Atkins and The University of Northampton. The figure of £1,309 per business and public sector premise passed is perhaps not unreasonable, but escalates to an eye-watering £7,644 per premise connected when the low takeup assumptions are factored in.

"Propel Northants" could represent a good launch platform for further growth of FttH services in Northamptonshire, but its current economics leave it stillborn.

Can the above weaknesses be realistically addressed to make the project an attractive investment ?

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Saturday, April 02, 2011

 

Can a County Council manage ?


Reading an excellent article by Robert Dale I started to reflect on how the likes of Cumbria and Lanacashire County Council are handling their broadband projects with part of the funding coming from Broadband Delivery UK (BDUK) .

Both counties have EU public tenders out, currently viewable online Lancashire and Cumbria.

Robert says that "local authorities should make finance facilities available specifically for these communities to move ahead with their own broadband when and where possible" but I really don't think they are up to that task in the way they currently operate. I say this based on my previous experiences in the private sector where we managed a capital investment programme of £20 - 60 million per year. It may be helpful to compare the approach taken.

I worked in a multi-site manufacturing company where we made investments to increase profitability through cost reduction or new products, invested in replacement works for equipment at the end of its life, upgraded facilities to meet new regulatory or other standards, and so on. There was active competition for the capital funds from the factories and we could have easily spent double what we had allocated by the Board of Directors. The administration involved a handful of people with a larger committee of technical and financial gurus joining senior line managers to argue out which projects were funded, canned or deferred. We'll call this process our "Capital Expenditure Committee" or CEC.

In the Broadband case we could cast BDUK as the Board of Directors, or maybe the County Council or its Chief Exec, setting the size of the budget. The officers of the Council could be equivalent to our CEC. If they were they would probably divide up the money into categories - for example Broadband notspots, Village pump pilots, FTTH pilots, Improved mobile broadband coverage, etc etc - and invite people to make submissions for funding. However they can't work like that, because they don't have any "customers" for the capital projects like we had factories.

In our case when a factory bid for funding and won it then they would procure the engineering and other services to deliver the project. Some of the resources may be their own labour, others would be bought in. The Factory Manager had responsibility for delivering the project on time and on budget, and was also effectively the "customer" of the CEC process in getting access to the money. Their submission for project funds would typically have to include detailed costings and supplier tenders at the later stages, we had 2 - 4 stages of application over 18-24 months depending on size and complexity of project.

The County Councils don't appear to have any customers. There isn't a mechanism in place for a community leader or broadband champion (equivalent to my Factory Manager) to ask for money from one of the pots or to influence what gets delivered in their area.

What we see in practice is the County Council writing a tender that effectively outsources the whole intellectual project of managing the expenditure and delivering the benefits. The large company winning the tender, for example BT, gets to make all the decisions about what to do where. It is responsible for delivering what it says it will at the tender stage which means a massive conflict of interest where the suppliers of goods and services are the same people deciding the best way to deploy those goods and services. The end users and local communities have no voice in the process.

A possible approach to match what Robert calls for, along the lines of my previous experience, might look like this :-

1. BDUK and County Council / Chief Executive define available funds, priorities and goals of expenditure and sets total expenditure budget.
2. County Council decides how to break up the total into parcels of expenditure to cover areas of activity, priorities, geographical areas, etc etc.
3. Community groups, local small companies, 3rd sector bodies, County Council departments, District or Parish Councils bid for appropriate funds to do their project to meet one or more of the objectives. Let's call them project sponsors.
4. County Council officials, BDUK, invited experts form a Capital Expenditure Committee to award funds to the best projects to the Project Sponsors based on the case they present.
5. The Project Sponsors procure necessary goods and services to deliver their project and manage its implementation.

With this approach there is no single large scale tender. There are multiple opportunities for SMEs, local companies etc to be Project Sponsors and get funding to deliver something. There are opportunities for suppliers big and small to tender for supplying goods and services to the Project Sponsors. There are opportunities for the 3rd sector to be a Project Sponsor, and so on. In other words it creates an eco-system of enterprise and empowerment to deliver an overall goal.

Would this deliver a better outcome than a single tender to a company with a turnover of at least £100m pa, as specified in at least one of the tenders ?

Let's try to illustrate the difference :-




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Friday, February 11, 2011

 

Upgrading infrastructure

Neelie Kroes, Vice-President of the European Commission responsible for the Digital Agenda, recently called for more action to deliver access to superfast broadband in pursuit of that Agenda.

Bemoaning the decline in rate of new connections she said that "Maximising broadband access obviously takes a mix of players and a mix of technologies, and the role of fibre is central."

It is good to see both mix of players and mix of technologies given prominence. The UK's current public sector broadband procurement process seems to be working against the former, and if your tender results in a choice between hammer providers you're going to get a solution involving only nails which works against the latter.

Personally I would like to see more diversity at the heart the BDUK pilots and funded projects. It should be a specific objective to try at least 5 different approaches in both technology and delivery organisation - otherwise BDUK and the County Councils are left trying to predict the best medium to long term solution without giving the other solutions a decent run for the money.

It would also be good to see more tolerance and acceptance in the debate around broadband delivery. If fibre to the cabinet is adequate for 10 years in appropriate areas then should we not welcome the provision of extra bandwidth as part of Neelie's Digital Agenda and the economic hopes riding on it ? Why do we spend so much time decrying solutions other than our own favourite - a sales tactic I have never liked. Can we not celebrate any increase in bandwidth or coverage if it helps someone in some way, especially if it pays its own way ?

The last twenty years has seen bandwidth grow in steps by changing the technology at each end of existing copper infrastructure. From 9600 baud modems through to 56k modems, then ADSL from exchanges, ADSL2+ and now VDSL2 from cabinets. All have been relatively low cost stepwise upgrades that have seen us get 18 million broadband users in the UK. The money spent on this has not been wasted, and investing in FTTC is not a waste of money if it pays off the investor within the useful life of the assets.

If universal FTTH will cost £5, 10 or £30 billion then the interest we save by deferring that investment by a year is a very substantial amount of money. So it makes sense to me to upgrade the infrastructure as and when it ceases to deliver adequate services to a location, and not get in a huge rush to spend money we don't have to meet a demand that maybe isn't actually here yet.

For some locations the time for an upgrade was 8 years ago. 10km of twisted pair copper isn't going to deliver an ADSL broadband service of any speed so there is a case to re-engineer such locations with either fibre optic connections, wireless or other solution that provides the needs of the user economically. These locations may be predominantly "rural"but some will be in built up areas and "electrically remote from the exchange" is probably the guiding principle.

If we draw an 800m radius around a BT cabinet the area covered is 2 sq.km which with 80,000 cabinets gives us a coverage of 160,000 sq.km. That's 66% of the UK land area, but only if we're lucky to have no overlaps and an even distribution of cabinets across the land - which clearly isn't the case. We are still left with at least a "final third" that is out of range of the "cabinet circles", plus a good number of customers that aren't connected to a cabinet at all. Even adding in VDSL2 from the exchange only adds another 5500 circles so less than 7% extra.

Where I'm heading with this is that there are places which have had no broadband for 8 years, like Ashby-de-la-Launde, and we do not appear to be addressing them as a specific target. Rolling them up into a county wide scheme may still see them left out as "the uneconomic part" as councillors seek to deliver maximum connections per public expenditure. Should we not identify them and have a specific plan to solve their problem ?

Do we need a BT Openreach product that is a single run fibre optic upgrade from exchange to premise that could be ordered in the same way as a new telephone line, perhaps. This would start the incremental upgrade to our telecoms infrastructure in the areas that are currently the least well served.

If we don't have a plan for BT to upgrade its infrastructure, or for Virgin Media to expand its, then we need a plan for an alternative infrastructure in areas where the existing services are inadequate. This probably means a plan to specifically not spend public money within 2 or 3km of a BT telephone exchange, other than in exceptional cases with demonstrable infrastructure problems.

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Tuesday, December 07, 2010

 

Do I need an ISP

I used to know what an ISP was for. They took your modem signal via the phone network, converted it back into TCP/IP data and passed it onto the internet :-



In the hopefully near future, Next Generation Access (NGA) will give me a TCP/IP connection over fibre optic (or xDSL, WiMAX, LTE, EFM or whatever) from a local network provider. If they provided transit to the internet it would be job done :-



This latter scenario is very similar to Virgin's cable broadband or to LLU ADSL, where vertically integrated providers take data from a local point directly to the internet. The prevailing "wholesale" model and the much talked about (but seldom existing) "open access" network doesn't allow the local network operator to provide internet connectivity but forces them to route traffic via an ISP in order to foster competition. The competition is mainly in price and add-on services as the local connectivity is fixed :-

Notice how in this case we have two entities or networks passing data from the local exchange equipment to the internet. This is purely for regulation and competition reasons. I may be using no services at all from the ISP, other than getting my data out onto the Internet. If the telco were allowed to do this directly I would not need the ISP.

ISPs can of course offer a range of other services beyond connectivity however I generally source these from the internet or "The Cloud" in order to be independent of connectivity provider and location. My 3G Android smartphone operates using cloud based services with the network operator (Vodafone) providing local access and internet connectivity only.

Given the track record of networks like Neuenen, Ashby, S. Yorks Digital Region, Fibrecity etc etc in attracting credible and known retail ISPs I really do wonder if there is any merit in insisting on open access or wholesaling arrangements. Do they not add complexity both in networking and business process terms rather than providing a simple one shop supplier of access to the internet from my home ?


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